People without Jobs, Jobs without People

Academica Group is Canada’s leading source of market intelligence and full cycle marketing services for higher education. It is headed by its founder, Ken Steele.  Mr. Steele recently attended the 2010 Association of Canadian Community Colleges (ACCC) Conference in Niagara Falls where, among the many topics of discussion was what demographic and labour market projections can tell us about the challenges we face in the future.  This is particularly relevant to high school students since it underscores the need (now, more than ever) for some form of post-secondary education (PSE) in order to be job-ready for a new and different employment market.

At the Conference, Dr Rick Miner, former president of Seneca College, discussed the findings of his report on Canadian labour market projections, “People without Jobs, Jobs without People.”  He promised equal doses of elation and depression for us all.

Demographics: In Canada we simultaneously are experiencing drastic demographic shifts and huge changes in educational attainment. As anyone who has heard me speak on emerging trends already knows, the baby boom generation is approaching retirement and the traditional working-age Canadian will drop from 70% of the population to just over 50%. In 2021, the number of retirees will start to exceed the working population in many parts of the country. By 2031 the labour force participation rate will drop about 10%, to below 60%, and population will flatten, resulting in a labour force deficit of as much as 4 million workers. The dependency ratio (youth and seniors as a percentage of working-age) will rise from 44% to over 60% by 2031 — so while this generation will be highly employable, they will likely be highly taxed as well.

Workforce needs:  About 25% of job classifications are new every 25 years, and “old” jobs are transformed every 15 years. Every job demands more and more Post-secondary Education (PSE) over time — a knowledge economy demands knowledge workers. A range of studies project 65-81% of the workforce will need PSE — so the PSE shortfall is projected to be 16 million by the Lumina Foundation. Futurist Adam Gordon projects new job titles like: body part manufacturer, memory augmentation surgeon, weather modification police, and social networking workers.  When the labour market shortfall is combined with increasing unemployment for those without appropriate education, the skill shortage will climb to 3.4 million by 2031. Canadian institutions will need to graduate more than 100,000 students a year.

Solutions:  Canada’s options are: increase immigration, and/or increase labour market participation by aboriginals, persons with disabilities, youth and/or seniors. It takes 10 years for immigrants to Canada to gain employment at the same rate as established Canadians, either because of credential recognition, language or cultural barriers. With labour market participation of just 55% among people with disabilities, there is huge potential to increase the workforce through accommodations. Female participation in the workforce could be increased through enhanced childcare options. Young people could be accelerated into the workforce through year-round schooling, joint university-college programs, the return of 3-year BA degrees, the improvement of high school, and attitudinal changes toward high school completion and PSE. Recent surveys have found that 42% of baby boomers are hoping for “cyclical employment” in retirement. Employers are less willing than employees to contemplate flexible approaches to retirement.

[Dr. Miner] also suggests that forcing high school students to choose a stream in grade 9 is far too young. We need to stop viewing retirement as an all-or-nothing proposition. We also need to address shockingly low rates of functional literacy (around 60% in Canada).  We need faster and anticipatory models of program renewal. There may be growing demand for modular, onsite, technology-based delivery of education. Hopefully there will be greater cooperation between universities and colleges. Industry needs to do more training of their workforce, and explore more flexible retirement plans.

 http://www.academica.ca/ACCC2010